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"I'll be positioned in the same office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, noting that if the discussion proceeded smoothly, he might invite the interviewer into Number 10 for another talk in 2026.

There is never truly downtime for leaders. Shortly before we sat down, the PM had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to decipher what on earth had transpired in Venezuela, where his key ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was far more extended than normal, had finished, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the new year begins, Starmer appears to have had a degree of a reboot. Maybe even just a bit of downtime with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This appeared to have left him in a more positive mood than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a awful political year for him.

But are he and his allies deluding themselves if they think his fortunes are poised to improve?

Leadership Questions

The harsh reality for the leader is that a significant number of his colleagues are convinced he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather gamble and oust him in 2026.

However Sir Keir was rejecting the idea in the interview on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he stated he'd be "evaluated at the poll", maintaining no one would strip his electoral mandate from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 could be for Labour to replace leader.

"We are in the fight of our times and I plan to guide the party," he said.

The Spring Test

The issue for the PM is that he will be scrutinised long before then – in a huge set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to contend, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir stating that there were no circumstances under which he would step down, should a his MPs ran against him for the job, should those elections prove disastrous for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He sought to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the electorate was reasonably eager for things to change. He tried to convince me, and the nation, that 2026 would be different.

The economic situation would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he said, when strategies the administration implemented during their initial turbulent year began to bear fruit.

• He vowed to shut asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he did not set a specific date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it was not a done deal, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western allies were now discussing how to integrate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His core argument is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have communicated with greater vigour than observed from him for a some time – more relaxed, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering pressure from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with greater political direction, more urgency, more speed and more urgency, his explanations were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political trouble, does he need a different script?

No government, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, has everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his team have erred, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when past remarks he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Sir Keir attributed it to "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting clear political perils as the year gets going. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new complication after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over many years, the thought he would be at ease with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "career-long proponent of international law" but we "just lack the full picture at the moment".

Some wanted him to denounce it prior to we spoke. And the government is expected to face increased demands to give an explicit view in Parliament in the near future.

And there has consistently been bubbling tension in the Labour ranks to revisit some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM denies he's doing that, but his new firmer plan to align more closely with the EU's single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will likely trigger howls that he is reneging on his vow never to try to reverse the decisions that stemmed from Brexit.

A move to cosy up to more of the single market will delight a faction on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to